Novel place for a survey @ Lean Startup Hacks

I recently saw an interesting post by team@gotstarfish.com, on a particular place to conduct survey:


I would share with you an approach
not yet mentioned by others. To the best of my knowledge, nobody else does
this, but I'm happy to share the tactic. I recommend standing at the
entrance to a subway platform and intercepting people just after they see
the train pulling away from the platform. They know they missed the train
and are unexpectedly idle for about 10 minutes while they wait for the next
train. Perfect time to ask them if they're willing to answer a few questions
while they wait.

*Benefits:*
- I get about a 95% acceptance rate on my request for an interview. This is
good for ensuring randomization of the sample (no self-selection bias toward
more open-minded / hyper-exploratory people).
- My time is *highly* utilized. Because I'm talking to people until the
train comes, my only downtime is the minute or two when the train is getting
loaded up. Once the doors close, the train starts to roll away and I'm
immediately prospecting the person who just walked onto the platform.

*Downsides: *
- I have to make sure that I can complete my interview in the amount of time
it takes for the next train to arrive. Checking a train schedule to find a
time when the trains are spaced out at about 10 minutes is a good idea.
- At different times of day, and on different sides of the track, you may
get a different demographic. It is a good idea to try to figure out whether
the sample you're getting is really diverse or not. Usually when they're
getting into the subway car I yell out "What's your age?" and "What do you
do for a living?"

Best,
Jared - Founder of Starfish

A biomass powered microgrid vs LED based microgrid

This is an Idea i saw on tie-cleantech-india-forum@googlegroups.com posted by Manu Sharma {orangehues@gmail.com }

Biomass plant + Micro grid + LED lamps

In this model, the developer invests in the 5 KW gasifier plant up front (Rs.2.2 Lakh). The micro power plant is housed in a one room shed with tin roof using locally available materials (estimated Rs.30,000). The 5 KW gasifier can work at 80% max load which gives us 4 KW which can light up 2000 homes in a vicinity each with a 2W LED lamp. 

A single operator manages the plant at night, collects biomass during the day from sellers, and cuts it into required sizes. He also resolves minor support issues. He is paid Rs.5000 per month or Rs.60,000 annually. Cost of biomass (22.5 kg / day) @ Rs.4 / kg comes to Rs.32,850 / year.

The developer puts in place a micro grid involving copper wires and bamboo poles for 2000 houses. Let's say this costs Rs.1 Lakh (we can later question this). The consumer pays nothing up front for energy generation or the grid. Each household purchases a 2W LED lamp for Rs.500. 

Consumers are charged for energy delivered. For the first year they pay the same they used to pay for kerosene -- around Rs. 20 / month (for 700 ml monthly kerosene consumption @ Rs32 / litre). After the first year, they pay only Rs. 10/ month or Rs.120 / yr. 

The developer makes 4.8 Lakh the first year  (2000 connections x Rs.20 /month x 12 months). All capital costs (2.2 Lakh + 30,000 + 3 Lakh = 5.50 Lakh) are recovered in a little over one year. After the first year, for each year of operation, the developer makes Rs. 2.4 Lakh per year.

Assuming a 20 year lifespan developer revenues will be 50.4 Lakhs. After deducting capital expenditure and operating expense (mainly the operator salary, cost of biomass and some O&M cost), the profit margin will be staggering. 

For the consumer, the total cost of lighting delivered over a 20 year lifespan will be Rs.500 for lamp + Rs. 240 for first year + Rs.2280 (rs.120 x 19yrs) = Rs.2520 or about half as much as they paid for the solar LED lamp. 

This is insanely profitable for developers because the cost of energy delivered is several times the cost from the grid. Yet, because cost of lighting from Koresene is so high, it still turns out cheap for the consumer. Further, if the LED lamps are rented out to consumers by the developer (rather than an outright purchase), their burden will reduce even further. 

Some notes

Even if estimate of putting up a micro grid at Rs.1 Lakh for 2000 houses is conservative, there is still more than amble buffer in the model to absorb higher costs. Also note that cost of land has not been taken into account because in rural areas far removed from the grid, land isn't likely to be a premium. It can be donated or leased. For a 5 KW unit, all you need is one room to house the unit and store feedstock. Storage isn't going to take a lot of space. A 5 kW unit will take about 4.5 kg biomass per hour. For a five hour operation each night, daily requirement is only 22.5kg. 

In conclusion, biomass power based distributed electricity generation for rural areas for lighting is 

• Profitable for developers by over 25 times compared to solar lanterns.  
• Reaches more than 4 times as many households and yet costs less to each house.

vs

LED Solar Lantern

A typical LED lantern with a 2W light source, a 4W module is listed here for Rs.2200. Let's assume actual price for bulk purchases to be Rs.1200 to be conservative including cost of all components and manufacturer / retailer margins. 

For around Rs. 5.50 Lakh -- around 458 lanterns can be sold netting around Rs.1.37 lakh to the distributor with profit margin @ Rs.300 / unit. 

Consumers may not be able to purchase the lantern in one go, so some of that money will go towards collecting payment in instalments. The lamps will require support so part of the profit will have to be kept aside for this as well. 

If the battery lasts 2 years, consumers will also have to fork out its cost (Rs.200?) every two years or @ Rs.8 / month. Assuming a 20 yr lifespan, a consumer will pay Rs.1200 for lamp and Rs.2000 for batteries totalling Rs.3200.

Here's the final cost comparison (without any errors) and in an easy to understand format.

		LED Solar Lantern	Biomass Powered Lighting
Components		a) Light source 2W b) Solar module 4W c) Battery 6v x 4.5ah	a) 5 KW gasifier (4 KW delivered) b) Tin roof building to house plant c) Micro grid for 2000 houses
Consumer purchases		Complete system	2W LED Light fixture (Rs.500) Electricity delivered for 5hr/night
Role of distributor / developer		Sells the system Collects payment in instalments Addresses support requests	Establishes biomass plant Puts up micro grid Sells LED lights Operator  manages plant, collects payment and provides support
Baseline amount Rs.4 Lakh to provide		Rs.400,000 / Rs.1200 = 333 units	Gasifier – 2.20 Lakh Building – 0.30 Lakh (estimated) Micro grid – 1.50 Lakh (estimated)
Lighting provided to		333 households	2000 households (4000W / 2W)
Tariff		--	Rs.20/mth for first year Rs.10/mth for 19 years
Consumer	Maintenance cost	Rs.200 every two years for battery replacement	--
	Lifetime cost (20 yr)	Rs.1200+Rs.2000 = Rs.3200	Rs.500 (LED light fixture) + 2520 (electricity cost) = Rs.3020
Distributor / developer	Operating expense	Cost to collect payment & offer support (not estimated)	Operator salary: Rs.60,000 /yr Biomass: Rs.32,850 /yr Maintenance: 8,000 /yr (2%) Total over 20 yrs: 19.16 Lakh
	Lifetime revenue (20y)	Rs.4 Lakh	Rs.60.40 Lakh (Rs.3020 x 2000 houses)
	Profit margin	1 Lakh (Rs.300/unit x 333 units) minus opex (not estimated)	60.40 – 19.16 = 41.24 Lakh